TERM

Extreme events are described in fields as diverse as climate, telluric hazards, astrophysics, economy and finance markets, material sciences, evolutionary ecology, etc. There is growing evidence that these various extreme events share common features, such as developing in complex systems and jointly with other events. However, their driving mechanisms seem to involve ingredients that, in some cases, produce events that are even more extreme than predicted by classical power laws. Understanding such deviations is key to understanding the phenomenology and physics of extreme events and to model them accurately.

Our ambition is to develop an integrative approach to better understand the determinants of extreme events and to model them in a generic manner. The generic models could be applied to a variety of domains and help to improve the management of the extreme risks associated with extreme events and resilience strategies.

As a starting step, we have organized two transdisciplinary workshops featuring experts in physics, geosciences, economics, finance, mathematics and other disciplines, from both within Université Côte d'Azur and external institutions, all focused on extreme risk modeling. During the workshops, differences and similarities between various extreme events and phenomena were identified, specifically in regard to the statistical probability of extreme event occurrence, and that of their energy release. Transdisciplinary international collaborations were initiated and several working papers were written.